China GDP growth slows to weakest pace since Q1 2009

22 October, 2018, 07:32 | Author: Teresa Adams
  • People walk past an electronic board showing Japan's Nikkei average and Japanese yen's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo Japan

That's the lowest reading since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009. Domestic demand turned out weaker than unexpectedly solid exports, ' said Kota Hirayama, senior emerging markets economist at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo.

They were aimed at easing fears China was swerving away from pledges of financial reform, and that private enterprises may suffer from a strengthening state hand on the economy.

"In terms of global asset allocation, China's stock market already has a pretty high investment value, with bubbles significantly contracting, the quality of listed companies improving and valuations at a historical low level".

Before the release media published interviews with the four top officials saying they were confident in the Chinese economy and the stock market despite a 30 per cent drop in the Shanghai Composite Index from its January peak.

'Weakness is largely coming from the secondary industry- most notably manufacturing.

Forecasters say that if all the tariff hikes both sides have threatened are imposed, that could cut China's 2019 growth by up to 0.3 percentage points. Experts are projecting that growth will slow further in the fourth quarter as U.S. tariffs take a toll on exports.

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The growth figure for the July to September quarter was 6.5% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said. China's economic growth slowed further in the latest quarter, adding to challenges for communist leaders who are fighting a mounting tariff battle with Washington.

"In fact, China has good economic fundamentals, has made progress in preventing financial risks and has macro leverage ratio stability", he said.

Nie Wen, an analyst at Hwabao Trust Shanghai, said "Looking ahead, the economic outlook is not optimistic with exports facing further headwinds as United States tariffs kick in and demand from emerging countries ebbs".

The numbers were in line with forecasts in an AFP poll but much slower than the 6.7 per cent seen in the previous three months, and were hit by the U.S. trade row and a deleveraging drive.

China's once high-flying automakers are now feeling the brunt of weaker consumer spending.

Retail sales, a window into Beijing's aim to get consumers spending to drive the economy, expanded 9.2 per cent for the month compared with a year ago, from 9.0 per cent in August and ahead of estimates.

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Experts therefore expect that the trade dispute in the next few months will clearly have a greater impact, since the majority of the USA special duties on imports from China only since last month.

Recent rapid losses in the yuan have prompted increasing speculation on whether the currency would breach the psychologically critical 7 per dollar level soon, given the local currency is facing a double whammy of depreciation pressure amid rising China-US trade tensions and signs of slowing economy.

China is world's second largest economy after the USA at $14 trillion. "China and the U.S. are now in contact with each other", he said.

Yi said the PBOC plans to introduce measures that will provide financing support for Chinese companies and maintain credit growth in the economy.

In other data, retail sales rose 9.2 percent in September from a year earlier. Chinese companies' overseas shipments rose an average of 11.7% from a year earlier, a slight improvement from an average of 11.5% monthly growth in the quarter before.

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